Cavendish Update 3/24/20: A sorta snow day
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Warren was determined to keep his home safe. Jane Hart
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3/24/20: Finances
1. What’s Happened in the Last 24 Hours
2. Financial Investment Perspective by Mark Huntley
3. Sanity Tip for the Day
4. Take a Break
5. Events
Last night we posted to Facebook the picture of Patty Stern, a Proctorsvile resident who is an ER nurse at Ascutney, in full garb. She’s doing her job so we need to do ours. We’re staying home for Patty and all the other Cavendish essential workers. Please post and send pictures of those who are going the extra distance to keep us safe.
To let these amazing people know we appreciate them, several village residents are encouraging Solidarity @ 8 tonight. We’re going to go outside and shout a big “thank you” to all those who are helping to get us through this.
“Can we talk?...”-a little Joan Rivers here. The school thing is a biach. Beyond the feel good stories of the school bus driver delivering special book bags with supplies and food so kids can learn remotely, there is the reality. For families it’s a farting dog, slow Internet (or none), the “I forgot to charge my ‘puter” (today’s equivalent of “the dog ate my homework”), “she started it,” all the while trying to juggle telecommuting for the first time, worrying about finances, and a host of other issues. The teachers have the flatulent dog’s litter mate and have many of the same concerns everyone else does, as well as missing their kids and classrooms, wondering if they are reaching them, if the power is going to go out (a real issue with our current storm), and just plain, is this working? They can’t just walk away from it and figure they’ll catch up tomorrow.
So if you feel like tearing your hair out, don’t. Ain’t no body around to give you a new do for a while.
Here’s the deal. As of yesterday, there are 69 clinical trials underway to find an effective treatment for Covid-19. Think of this as a very large clinical trial in remote learning. We’re going to figure out what works, what doesn’t and we’re going to do it together. If you want to cry, have at it, just not too long as nobody looks great after a long jag and besides I can see ugly from here. There’s a Sanity Tip below to help when you think you are just going to lose it. And if you do, apologize if needed, and turn the page. Hang in there.
This week we want to try and help with some of the questions you might have by asking various members of our wonderful Cavendish community to help in addressing concerns. Today it’s financial investments with Mark Huntley. Tomorrow’s will be connecting remotely with family and friends from Trevor Barlow.
1. WHAT’S HAPPENED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS:
• And you thought pretty much everything was shut down? At Gov. Scott’s news conference yesterday, he ordered all businesses and nonprofits to implement any possible work-from-home measures. He also warned Vermonters some version of a “stay-at-home” order will happen this week. " He is talking about measures similar to what New York, Illinois and California are doing. You’ll still be able to go outside and exercise. Just no early spring baseball. But we’re already doing this, so don’t stress about it.
• Scott pushes back income tax deadline; waives penalties on sales, rooms and meals payments: the state has pushed back tax deadlines for businesses and individual Vermonters, in an effort to provide economic relief during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Road construction season off to an early start in Vermont this year: Yes! Come on Depot St. Bridge. Thanks to Dawn Tyrrell we know that they are already working on it. Will keep you updated with her terrific pictures.
• DHMC Now Able to Process Covid-19 Tests in Lab: This is good news as it will tell us how fast the virus is spreading, or better yet, what an incredible job we’re all doing in practicing social distancing.
• There is enough for everyone, so please give it a rest!. Please don't shop for more than 2 weeks at a time. The supply chain is fine. Hording is not. VT Grocers Plead with Shoppers to Stop Hording. And I really don’t want to have to remind you again about the chocolate thing.
• If you are lucky enough to have Comcast, they’re coming through. More entertainment content is now available for you to watch for free. They have worked with our partners to provide a range of additional free content to keep you entertained while you're at home. You can find it by saying "Free" into your Xfinity Voice Remote.
2. FINANCIAL INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVE: We know this is a big concern for those who have college savings plans, retirement funds etc.. Mark Huntley, who is now part of the Cavendish Covid-19 Task Force (Rotary/Black River Senior Center & American Portfolios) has written the following article to give you some insight into the current situation.
From the Desk of an Investment Professional: Uncharted-unprecedented-apocalyptic, and yes, scary.
We have been managing private retirement portfolios, corporations, endowments for 31 years, and this situation is different. For all the folks who are trying to navigate these waters alone, please consider talking with a financial professional, even just for a free consultation.
The old stodgy asset allocation model is history, as it never assumed interest rates would go to zero. There is no blanket statement that tells one “what-when-why-how” to invest (especially now) regarding their money. EVERY situation is different, depending on income needs, risk tolerance, timeline, experience, age, etc. If you haven’t jumped out the window, congrats, you have survived a market crash (well, so far). (Year To Date) the general markets are down 35%. A little disconcerting is that was in 6 weeks.
So, what do you do? Listen to the talking heads or proactively do something about it? Here’s the rub:
It’s about debt (bonds) and liquidity. Bonds? Flight to quality? I believe that flight crashed when rates hit zero (remember all of Europe has negative rates to prop up and repair their economy, well, that failed). Bonds are our biggest concern. Bank CD’s at 1.8% for a 1 year and 1.9% for a 5 year. Inflation is 2.73% and if they are taxable, you are under water. The debt fuse was lit back in Sept. 2019 when the repo market tanked. Money Market Accounts – Pensions – Insurance companies are all bond heavy. Is there enough liquidity if everyone wanted it? Money markets? That is ultra-short paper, BUT, some of that is commercial and floating rate which was a big problem in 2008.
How do bond mutual funds buy paper to support their yield, that many people live on. If/when the bonds in their portfolio get called, the manager has to go into the market and buy new rates (that are near zero); what will your dividend yield and value look like then? Stocks? We have private clients that felt a week ago was the bottom and went in (against our wishes).
We are, in our opinion, Global Recession Bound. We can all stay home for the sake of the country’s health, although we cannot shut down the economy--devastating to people, their jobs, small businesses, pensions.
I will end by saying that I know this is a rather bleak overview, and some of it is a little technical. I can give you the old " market always comes back, hang in there!”.
There is amazing work being done by the health community at large, so there is most definitely hope, and maybe a treatment. Fingers crossed…
If you want to call us for more detailed questions, we are happy to chat with you—no office visits…you know, social distancing and all. Our toll free number is 1-888-922-1035 or you can mail me at mhuntley@americanportfolios.com.
May you be safe
3 .SANITY TIP FOR THE DAY: Feeling really anxious? Practice the rule of 5 and look around you. Name five things you can see, four you can touch, three you can hear, two you can smell, and one you can taste. If you can’t remember the five, count every red (or your favorite color) item you see where you are standing. This helps to ground you and brings you back to center.
4. TAKE A BREAK: Make something you can hang outside that shows your solidarity to the community and most particularly to our essential workers. Give them some eye candy and love as they drive by to work each day. Send pictures cause we’re all staying home and don’t want to miss it.
5. UPCOMING EVENTS: Go to dgBody Works https://www.facebook.com/dgbodyworks/ for classes that are being posted via Facebook live. Take a new one, do an old one. Stay fit and healthy. Class schedule for the week.
Wednesday 5:30 pm Barre (Kata)
Wednesday 7 pm Bootcamp (Denise)
Thursday 5:45 pm Meditation (Lori)
Thursday 6 pm Yoga for Healthy Bones (Lori)
Friday 7 am Bootcamp (Lori)
Saturday 8 am Yoga Pose of the Day (Lori)
Staying home for Patty!
The Longer you delay, the longer we stay
Have a Heart -stay home or 6 feet apart.
Stay healthy to protect yourself and Cavendish.
